Lars Peter Hansen (2014) - Uncertainty and Valuation

Lars Peter Hansen (2014)

Uncertainty and Valuation

Lars Peter Hansen (2014)

Uncertainty and Valuation

Abstract

I will explore how alternative sources of uncertainty have an impact on asset valuation. I will show how decision theory, control theory and statistical theory provide valuable tools to model investor behavior and to reveal how uncertainty is reflected in security market prices. In intertemporal environments, risk-return tradeoffs depend on the payoff or investment horizon. To study these tradeoffs, I will construct pricing counterparts to impulse response functions. Recall that impulse response functions measure the importance of next-period shocks for future values of a time series. The asset-pricing counterparts are shock elasticities which measure the expected contribution to a cash flow from a shock in the next period shock and the price of that shock.

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